Japan Koyo Update: 2nd Forecast Out, Hokkaido Peaking Now

The October update is out and the north is on fire: Japan’s second foliage forecast confirms the late season while Hokkaido peaks this very week. Two timelines, one country — now in the north, December in Kyoto. Here is the Monday update in eight stages: the forecast, right now, Hokkaido, the Alps, the cities, the festivals, the money, and the method.

From the forecast desk — Elena Marsh: Forecasts via JMC (2nd forecast Oct 1: ~700 spots + 3,000 mountains, warmer autumn; 1st forecast Sep 2 anchors: Kyoto Dec 11, Tokyo Nov 29, Osaka Dec 4), WeatherNews (Sep 3: later-or-slightly-later, ~1,200 spots; Kyoto spots moved a day earlier late Sep), JMA Hokkaido (Kurodake Sep 2 note, Sounkyo first-half Oct), live spots via Koyomi Japan (Jozankei Oct 1–20, Kappa Bus Oct 1–21 ¥700, day-use onsen ¥800–1,500), TOMOGO (Sounkyo Oct 9–18, Naruko Oct 27–Nov 10, Norikura Oct 8–19, Shirakawa-go Oct 31–Nov 13), guides via thestandardjapan/selfguidejapan (Kyoto Dec 8–21, JR Oct 1 hike, tax-free Nov 1 change, Golden Route Nov 18–early Dec). Forecasts only — refresh before deposits.

The forecast: second round, late confirmed

October 1 delivered. JMC 2nd forecast released Oct 1 (~700 viewing spots + 3,000 mountains): after a warmer-than-average late summer and early autumn, late peaks hold. City anchors stand (1st forecast): Kyoto maples ~Dec 11 (6 days behind average, inside the band), Tokyo ~Nov 29, Osaka ~Dec 4, Fukuoka ~Dec 7; ginkgo Tokyo Nov 26, Kyoto Nov 27, Osaka Nov 24. WeatherNews (Sep 3, ~1,200 spots): later-or-slightly-later than normal nationwide; Kyoto spots nudged a day earlier late September. The message: plan late, confirm often. Second round, same verdict — December Kyoto.

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Right now: the north burns

This week, not next. Peaking NOW: Jozankei Oct 1–20, Sounkyo Oct 9–18, Norikura Skyline Oct 8–19, Hakuba from Oct 11; Kurodake summit half-red since late September, colour sliding to Sounkyo gorge. The 8°C rule (five straight nights under 8°C triggers the turn) is firing across the north. If your leave is NOW: Hokkaido or the Alps, this week, no delay. The north burns for a fortnight — go while it burns.

Hokkaido: Jozankei and Sounkyo

Sapporo’s backyard first. Jozankei Onsen gorge (hour from Sapporo): whole valley red-gold around steaming hotels; Kappa Bus Oct 1–21, ¥700 (five viewpoints, no car needed); Kappa Liner express reservation (sells out peak weekends); Futami Suspension Bridge before 9am (signature shot, no crowds); day-use onsen ¥800–1,500 (leaves + baths). Sounkyo valley Oct 9–18 (Asahikawa base): gorge walls flaming. Weekend road traffic heavy — bus beats car. Hokkaido now: gorge, bus, bath, bridge.

The Alps: Norikura to Hakuba

The middle belt ignites. Norikura Skyline Oct 8–19, Hakuba Goryo Oct 11–26, Kagamiike Oct 16–29, Nojiri Oct 29–Nov 11; Shirakawa-go Oct 31–Nov 13 (thatch + leaves); Takayama festival done (Oct 9–10, next year). The Alps window: two to three weeks, elevation by elevation. Pair with Matsumoto castle, Takayama streets, Kanazawa gardens. The Alps now-ish: skyline this week, villages next.

Kyoto strategy: the December playbook

December Kyoto, done right. Dec 8–21 window: central temples + Uji + Nara building from Dec 8, peak from Dec 11, holding to week three. Dawn starts (openings beat buses), weekday illuminations (weekends sell out), Tofukuji 8:15 (arrive before the 8:30 opening, ¥1,000 peak fee). Eikando nights, Kiyomizu mornings, Arashiyama edges. Hotels: the December rush — book before the next update. The playbook: dawn, weekdays, December 8–21.

Tohoku now: Naruko and Matsushima

Between Hokkaido and Kyoto, Tohoku turns. Naruko Gorge Oct 27–Nov 10 (the classic — gorge walls + rail line), Matsushima Nov 9–24 (pines + maples + bay), Bandai-Azuma Oct 9–24 (skyline drive, ending now). Tohoku late October: gorges, lakes, mountain temples without Kyoto’s crowds. Pair with Sendai base, onsen nights, rail passes. Tohoku now-ish: Bandai this week, Naruko next. The relay runs south — follow it or miss it. Six weeks, north to south, one colour wave. Burning now in Hokkaido, building toward Kyoto. Second forecast, same verdict: go north now, south in December. The October update: confirmed late, burning north.

The cities: Kyoto December, Tokyo late November

Then the lowlands. Kyoto Dec 8–21 window (peak from Dec 11): central temples, Uji, Nara building from Dec 8; colour holds to week three (dramatic exit when it goes). Tokyo Nov 29 / Nov 26 ginkgo (Gaien tunnel, Gyoen, Rikugien lights); Osaka Dec 4 (Midosuji boulevard); Nara mid-November aperitif (deer + reds, 45 min from Kyoto). Dawn rule: openings beat buses; weekdays beat weekends; illuminations need weeknights. Cities later: Tokyo late Nov, Kyoto December.

The festivals: Kawaguchiko and lights

Book around the glow. Kawaguchiko Momiji Festival Nov 7–29 (Fuji + maples, photo of the century); temple illuminations late Nov–Dec (Eikando, Kiyomizu — weeknights, opening slots); Kyoto nocturnes sell weekends out. Festivals anchor itineraries: reserve around them, arrive early, stay late. The glow season: November into December, night after dawn.

The money: passes and taxes shift

NEW trip math. JR Pass Oct 1 price hike + tax-free Nov 1 rule change: recalculate every pass (Tokyo–Kyoto–Hiroshima equation moved). Kyoto December hotels: the new rush — book before the next JMC update moves prices again. Day-use onsen, Kappa buses, illuminations: small costs, big experiences. The money rule: lock beds early, keep one flexible day, refresh forecasts before non-refundable deposits.

The method: two timelines, one trip

North now, Kyoto later — or pick one. Leave now: Hokkaido/Alps this week (Jozankei, Sounkyo, Norikura). Leave late Nov: Golden Route Nov 18–early Dec, Kyoto LAST (peak Dec 11). Leave mid: Nikko/Alps + early Kawaguchiko. Book Kyoto/Nikko weekends now; Tofukuji 8:15 weekdays (¥1,000 peak fee Nov 15–Dec 7). Refresh at the next JMC update; follow the colour south for six weeks — or catch it burning now.